In this project we have improved numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of low level winds in the marine boundary layer. This has been accomplished with the following tools
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF, both in his single column (SCM) and three-dimensional (3D) versions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Wave Watch III (WWIII)
SE algorithms from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART, Anderson et al. 2009)
and Observations of key quantities of the lower MBL, including temperature and winds at multiple levels above the sea surface. The experiments with the WRF SCM / DART system have lead to large improvements with respect to a standard WRF configuration, which is currently commonly used by the wind energy industry. The single column model appears to be a tool particularly suitable for off-shore wind energy applications given its accuracy, the ability to quantify uncertainty, and the minimal computational resource requirements. In situations where the impact of an upwind wind park may be of interest in a downwind location, a 3D approach may be more suitable. We have demonstrated that with the WRF 3D / DART system the accuracy of wind predictions (and other meteorological parameters) can be improved over a 3D computational domain, and not only at specific locations. All the scripting systems developed in this project (i.e., to run WRF SCM / DART, WRF 3D / DART, and the coupling between WRF and WWIII) and the several modifications and upgrades made to the WRF SCM model will be shared with the broader community.