Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics. [electronic resource]

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Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 630.9 Agriculture and related technologies

Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. National Nuclear Security Administration ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2014

Mô tả vật lý: Size: 68 p. : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 262137

Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.
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