Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals [electronic resource]

• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 372.6 *Language arts (Communication skills)
• Thông tin xuất bản: Richland, Wash. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (U.S.) ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2019
• Mô tả vật lý: Size: Article Number 4759 : , digital, PDF file.
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 267703
• Chủ đề: 1. 01 coal, lignite, and peat; 2. Climate-change mitigation; 3. Climate-change policy; 4. Energy infrastructure; 5. Energy modelling

Tóm tắt

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 �C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 �C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 �C and 1.5 �C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.